This was ~my thought process upon seeing the Anthropic Polymarket numbers 2 weeks ago (as documented on discord).
Wow, over 90%+ on Anthropic going over 500B.
At first I thought it might be a good idea for EAs to hedge on this market
Then I realized that the total size of this market is like in the single-digit thousands of dollars.
which in turn makes me more pessimistic on how much to update on prediction market probabilities in practice, at least for questions like this one.
This was ~my thought process upon seeing the Anthropic Polymarket numbers 2 weeks ago (as documented on discord).
Wow, over 90%+ on Anthropic going over 500B.
At first I thought it might be a good idea for EAs to hedge on this market
Then I realized that the total size of this market is like in the single-digit thousands of dollars.
which in turn makes me more pessimistic on how much to update on prediction market probabilities in practice, at least for questions like this one.