This sounds like you are trying to say that there are no specific business-running skills, it is all just a question of motivation and ability to work hard. Apologies if I have strawmanned you. Could you please describe your model explicitly?
As a hypothetical example, imagine someone diagnosed with Asperger syndrome and ADHD, who during school keeps working 8 hours or more on their software development projects. This person gets extremely motivated by ideas of success and early retirement. They have no experience managing a company, and neither has anyone in their family or social group.
If such person starts a company, what probability of success do you estimate, and how many years do you expect it would take for that success to come (after how many years should the person give up if the success did not come)? Let’s define “success” as the moment when the person keeps making 2x as much money as they would otherwise get in a job (with the same skills and the same hard work), and doesn’t have to work more than 8 hours a day (this includes all work, such as doing their taxes, etc.).
Not sure why you choose Asperger’s as they have average or above average intelligence and same with ADHD followed by they work hard; something ADHD constrains.
In your hypothetical I’d imagine it’s quite high although putting an exact number would be difficult. By the way, I believe that most people believe by business I am referring to a physical business such as a restaurant and businesses with a high capital cost. That’s not what I am referring to, programming is more like what I am referring to.
I don’t see why they would give up if they are giving 8 hours a day of actual work they’re bound to be successful assuming they don’t end up with catastrophic luck. Lets say you wind up getting quite good at coding in 3 months of coding for 8 hours a day. Why wouldn’t you than be able to leverage that skill into coding whatever and monetizing it?
Ok screw that example, Just in college, not in high school or anything extra. If you spend 40 hours a week on coursework, for 30 weeks a year (2 semesters a year − 15 weeks per semester) for 4 years. You dedicate (40 hours*30 weeks)(4 years) = 4800 hours just to college.
Which is 600 days of 8 hours of work on a business. Instead of going to college you do that. Are you going to say the odds of success are low?
Because lack of social skills makes it more difficult to figure out what other people want and how much they are lying when they say they want something, more difficult to convince people to buy your product instead of the competing products, etc.
To put it simply, I assume that in modern economy, the actual problem is selling stuff, not producing it. Things can be produced cheaply in China; software can be written by Indians or LLMs; apologies for the crude simplification. Some people make money selling worthless shit, such as homeopathy. Markets for useful things are oversaturated.
If you are good at selling, but you can’t produce, you can hire someone to produce the stuff, or you can become someone’s agent. If you are good at producing, but you can’t sell, you can… get a job, or give it away for free and beg for money on Patreon (and even that is a kind of selling, because if you suck at self-promotion, people will simply ignore your Patreon account).
Jobs are the way to convert your production skills into income if you don’t have the social skills.
600 days of 8 hours of work on a business. [...] Are you going to say the odds of success are low?
Yes. Hours of work do not automatically translate to success. It is possible to spend two years working full-time on something that no one wants to buy, and maybe isn’t even good enough (you mention skipping college, so we are talking about a person with high-school level skills and experience).
This sounds like you are trying to say that there are no specific business-running skills, it is all just a question of motivation and ability to work hard. Apologies if I have strawmanned you. Could you please describe your model explicitly?
As a hypothetical example, imagine someone diagnosed with Asperger syndrome and ADHD, who during school keeps working 8 hours or more on their software development projects. This person gets extremely motivated by ideas of success and early retirement. They have no experience managing a company, and neither has anyone in their family or social group.
If such person starts a company, what probability of success do you estimate, and how many years do you expect it would take for that success to come (after how many years should the person give up if the success did not come)? Let’s define “success” as the moment when the person keeps making 2x as much money as they would otherwise get in a job (with the same skills and the same hard work), and doesn’t have to work more than 8 hours a day (this includes all work, such as doing their taxes, etc.).
Not sure why you choose Asperger’s as they have average or above average intelligence and same with ADHD followed by they work hard; something ADHD constrains.
In your hypothetical I’d imagine it’s quite high although putting an exact number would be difficult. By the way, I believe that most people believe by business I am referring to a physical business such as a restaurant and businesses with a high capital cost. That’s not what I am referring to, programming is more like what I am referring to.
I don’t see why they would give up if they are giving 8 hours a day of actual work they’re bound to be successful assuming they don’t end up with catastrophic luck. Lets say you wind up getting quite good at coding in 3 months of coding for 8 hours a day. Why wouldn’t you than be able to leverage that skill into coding whatever and monetizing it?
Ok screw that example, Just in college, not in high school or anything extra. If you spend 40 hours a week on coursework, for 30 weeks a year (2 semesters a year − 15 weeks per semester) for 4 years. You dedicate (40 hours*30 weeks)(4 years) = 4800 hours just to college.
Which is 600 days of 8 hours of work on a business. Instead of going to college you do that. Are you going to say the odds of success are low?
Because lack of social skills makes it more difficult to figure out what other people want and how much they are lying when they say they want something, more difficult to convince people to buy your product instead of the competing products, etc.
To put it simply, I assume that in modern economy, the actual problem is selling stuff, not producing it. Things can be produced cheaply in China; software can be written by Indians or LLMs; apologies for the crude simplification. Some people make money selling worthless shit, such as homeopathy. Markets for useful things are oversaturated.
If you are good at selling, but you can’t produce, you can hire someone to produce the stuff, or you can become someone’s agent. If you are good at producing, but you can’t sell, you can… get a job, or give it away for free and beg for money on Patreon (and even that is a kind of selling, because if you suck at self-promotion, people will simply ignore your Patreon account).
Jobs are the way to convert your production skills into income if you don’t have the social skills.
Yes. Hours of work do not automatically translate to success. It is possible to spend two years working full-time on something that no one wants to buy, and maybe isn’t even good enough (you mention skipping college, so we are talking about a person with high-school level skills and experience).