Mike, I’d certainly make some use of prediction markets. But I expect them generally to not create clear-cut recommendations. It’s certainly possible that they would cause big changes in my plans, but I’m starting with the assumption that there’s too much uncertainty to get more than a crudely educated guess from any approach to deciding how to spend the money.
I’ve posted how I’d allocate the money here.
Mike, I’d certainly make some use of prediction markets. But I expect them generally to not create clear-cut recommendations. It’s certainly possible that they would cause big changes in my plans, but I’m starting with the assumption that there’s too much uncertainty to get more than a crudely educated guess from any approach to deciding how to spend the money. I’ve posted how I’d allocate the money here.