I was looking over AI 2027 and my own counter-predictions from 8 months ago, and it seems like I still mostly endorse my counter-predictions.
As I predicted, “large language models are still very stupid and make basic mistakes a 5-year-old would never make”, and also, “I still believe my use of AI is less than a 25% improvement to my own productivity as a programmer.” Agentic coding AI has improved more than I thought it would, but, in line with my predictions, “most breakthroughs in AI are not a result of directly increasing the general intelligence/”IQ” of the model, e.g. advances in memory, reasoning or agency.”
The most striking prediction by AI 2027 for Early 2026 was that by now, AI companies would be making “algorithmic progress 50% faster than they would without AI assistants”. This is an extraordinary prediction and as far as I can tell, this is nowhere near close to true. It seems to me that AI 2027 and reality are starting to diverge here, for basically the reasons I laid out 8 months ago (limited IQ gains/no online learning). Has anyone heard of AI researchers saying they’re 50% more productive now, in a way that is credible?
I was looking over AI 2027 and my own counter-predictions from 8 months ago, and it seems like I still mostly endorse my counter-predictions.
As I predicted, “large language models are still very stupid and make basic mistakes a 5-year-old would never make”, and also, “I still believe my use of AI is less than a 25% improvement to my own productivity as a programmer.” Agentic coding AI has improved more than I thought it would, but, in line with my predictions, “most breakthroughs in AI are not a result of directly increasing the general intelligence/”IQ” of the model, e.g. advances in memory, reasoning or agency.”
The most striking prediction by AI 2027 for Early 2026 was that by now, AI companies would be making “algorithmic progress 50% faster than they would without AI assistants”. This is an extraordinary prediction and as far as I can tell, this is nowhere near close to true. It seems to me that AI 2027 and reality are starting to diverge here, for basically the reasons I laid out 8 months ago (limited IQ gains/no online learning). Has anyone heard of AI researchers saying they’re 50% more productive now, in a way that is credible?