I agree that it’s plausible there could be some benefit to creating an AI prediction market.
I mostly haven’t taken any of the other AI benchmarks seriously, but I just looked into ForecastBench and surprisingly it seems to me to be worth taking seriously. (The other benchmarks are just like “hey, we promise there aren’t similar problems in the LLM’s training data! Trust us!”) I notice their website suggests ForecastBench is a “proxy for general intelligence”, so it seems like I’m not the only one who thinks forecasting and general intelligence might be related. I agree it’s not super well-defined, but I mean it in the way I assume the ForecastBench people mean it, which is the ability to, like, generally do stuff at a minimum of a human level.
I think I don’t take that chart particularly seriously though. A lot of AI predictions hinge on someone using a ruler to naively extrapolate linear progress into the future, and we just don’t know if that’s what’s going to happen. I’d personally guess it isn’t. Basically because LLMs got some one-time gains by scaling large enough to be trained on the whole Internet. They may continue to scale at the same pace, or they might not. Either way, I don’t think a linear extrapolation is proof they will.
I agree that it’s plausible there could be some benefit to creating an AI prediction market.
I mostly haven’t taken any of the other AI benchmarks seriously, but I just looked into ForecastBench and surprisingly it seems to me to be worth taking seriously. (The other benchmarks are just like “hey, we promise there aren’t similar problems in the LLM’s training data! Trust us!”) I notice their website suggests ForecastBench is a “proxy for general intelligence”, so it seems like I’m not the only one who thinks forecasting and general intelligence might be related. I agree it’s not super well-defined, but I mean it in the way I assume the ForecastBench people mean it, which is the ability to, like, generally do stuff at a minimum of a human level.
I think I don’t take that chart particularly seriously though. A lot of AI predictions hinge on someone using a ruler to naively extrapolate linear progress into the future, and we just don’t know if that’s what’s going to happen. I’d personally guess it isn’t. Basically because LLMs got some one-time gains by scaling large enough to be trained on the whole Internet. They may continue to scale at the same pace, or they might not. Either way, I don’t think a linear extrapolation is proof they will.