Such as that, on the fairly plausible assumption that the human race will eventually colonize the stars, as long as we manage not to go extinct first, it seems rather likely that that will be something of at least the rather rough order O(10∼10) times as many people in our current forward lightcone as in our backward lightcone. That’s a rather large coincidence — why is our current viewpoint that atypical?
I think the most likely solution is that your current viewpoint is actually typical. Most human experience in the universe is being a key figures in the transition to terrestrial superintelligence.
I’m wondering if you read the footnote? My entire point is that the criterion of being a typical human sampled across time inherently and unavoidably requires pregnition (up to the point we become extinct).
So “I am a typical human, of all humans who will ever have lived” is not a valid uniform prior—and I have an enormous amount of evidence that no, I actually live in a specific time and place, a specific number of centuries after the invention of the scientific method, and a specific number of decades after the development of Bayesianusm.
I think the most likely solution is that your current viewpoint is actually typical. Most human experience in the universe is being a key figures in the transition to terrestrial superintelligence.
I’m wondering if you read the footnote? My entire point is that the criterion of being a typical human sampled across time inherently and unavoidably requires pregnition (up to the point we become extinct).
So “I am a typical human, of all humans who will ever have lived” is not a valid uniform prior—and I have an enormous amount of evidence that no, I actually live in a specific time and place, a specific number of centuries after the invention of the scientific method, and a specific number of decades after the development of Bayesianusm.