If I roll a million-sided die, then no individual number rolled on it is more surprising than any other, not even a roll of 1 or 1,000,000 — UNLESS I’m playing an adversarial game where me rolling a 1 is uniquely good for my opponent. Then if I roll a 1 I should wonder if the die was fixed.
Yes, but if you haven’t looked at the die yet, and the question of whether it’s showing a number lower than 100 is relevant for some reason, you’re going to strongly favour ‘no’.
(That’s not quite how I think about anthropic problems, though, because I don’t think there’s anything analogous to the dice roll—hence my original complaint about smuggled dualism.)
Yes, but if you haven’t looked at the die yet, and the question of whether it’s showing a number lower than 100 is relevant for some reason, you’re going to strongly favour ‘no’.
(That’s not quite how I think about anthropic problems, though, because I don’t think there’s anything analogous to the dice roll—hence my original complaint about smuggled dualism.)
Agreed, on all counts