But that’s not how I’m thinking of it in the first place—I’m not positing any random selection process. I just don’t see an immediately obvious flaw here:
by definition, “I am in the first 10% of people” is false for most people
so I should expect it to be false for me, absent sufficient evidence against
And I still don’t quite understand your response to this formulation of the argument. I think you’re saying ‘people who have ever lived and will ever live’ is obviously the wrong reference class, but your arguments mostly target beliefs that I don’t hold (and that I don’t think I am implicitly assuming).
But that’s not how I’m thinking of it in the first place—I’m not positing any random selection process. I just don’t see an immediately obvious flaw here:
by definition, “I am in the first 10% of people” is false for most people
so I should expect it to be false for me, absent sufficient evidence against
And I still don’t quite understand your response to this formulation of the argument. I think you’re saying ‘people who have ever lived and will ever live’ is obviously the wrong reference class, but your arguments mostly target beliefs that I don’t hold (and that I don’t think I am implicitly assuming).