And it mentioned a chain of words I had not thought of before: “Multiplied by the reciprocal of the probability of this statement being true.”
At that point, I felt like I couldn’t get much past “I notice I am confused.” without feeling like I was making a math error. (And that it was possible the math error was in assuming the statement could be evaluated at all, which I wasn’t sure of.)
In general, how should I assess that statement or others like it? Does it’s recursion simply make it impossible to evaluate under some circumstances?
I just read the following comment from Ben123:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/kd/pascals_mugging_tiny_probabilities_of_vast/6rzn
And it mentioned a chain of words I had not thought of before: “Multiplied by the reciprocal of the probability of this statement being true.” At that point, I felt like I couldn’t get much past “I notice I am confused.” without feeling like I was making a math error. (And that it was possible the math error was in assuming the statement could be evaluated at all, which I wasn’t sure of.)
In general, how should I assess that statement or others like it? Does it’s recursion simply make it impossible to evaluate under some circumstances?