Thanks for all the comments. For those who are drawn to not changing the probability all the way through the story—which, I agree, is the intuitively right answer—I recommend looking at this variant where sticking to your guns leads to incoherent probabilities.
Thanks for all the comments. For those who are drawn to not changing the probability all the way through the story—which, I agree, is the intuitively right answer—I recommend looking at this variant where sticking to your guns leads to incoherent probabilities.