In this webinar Douglas Hubbard talks about inconsistency even with Calibrated Experts that I feel is very close to the problems you’re grappling with. He says that the simplest solution is to average expert’s answers together.
But I have a feeling elsewhere he’s also said you can account for personal inconsistency by getting the same person to answer the same question on two separate occasions and average their answers. That might be my faulty memory.
In this webinar Douglas Hubbard talks about inconsistency even with Calibrated Experts that I feel is very close to the problems you’re grappling with. He says that the simplest solution is to average expert’s answers together.
But I have a feeling elsewhere he’s also said you can account for personal inconsistency by getting the same person to answer the same question on two separate occasions and average their answers. That might be my faulty memory.