If you’re still at this level of confidence in the argument, I’d check Bostrom’s argument somewhere online, it’s pretty straightforwards over all.
In particular, your above comment has a similar mental flavor to the argument:
One of these is likely true:
The universe came into being as-is while you were reading this
The universe came into being a long time ago and then things happened that caused this state
I select 1 because it’s simpler to assume less time in the past.
It seems like you’re making a similar error, but I can’t really tell if it’s a form of some named error or not.
If you’re still at this level of confidence in the argument, I’d check Bostrom’s argument somewhere online, it’s pretty straightforwards over all.
In particular, your above comment has a similar mental flavor to the argument:
One of these is likely true:
The universe came into being as-is while you were reading this
The universe came into being a long time ago and then things happened that caused this state I select 1 because it’s simpler to assume less time in the past.
It seems like you’re making a similar error, but I can’t really tell if it’s a form of some named error or not.