In that case, your survey should have asked something along the lines of the following: What do you estimate is the probability that the United States government had a role in the 9/11 attacks? Which can be easily adapted for Prediction Book: Evidence will become public in the next 10 years demonstrating that the US government had a role in the attacks.
But instead you went with a yes-no question and a meaningless “inside job/outside job” dichotomy. The Outside Job category includes a lot of conspiracy theories itself (Israel did it; the Illuminati did it, etc) so you aren’t asking whether people “believe the official story” so much as whether they believe that the US government did it.
In a few years when more information about 9/11 becomes public it could be helpful to look back and see how LW stood on the issue.
I take it from this you expect that in a few years evidence to support your theory will surface. Accordingly, will you update in favor of “no conspiracy” if this evidence fails to surface? Have you updated based on the fact that it has been more than 10 years and no evidence has surfaced?
In that case, your survey should have asked something along the lines of the following: What do you estimate is the probability that the United States government had a role in the 9/11 attacks? Which can be easily adapted for Prediction Book: Evidence will become public in the next 10 years demonstrating that the US government had a role in the attacks.
But instead you went with a yes-no question and a meaningless “inside job/outside job” dichotomy. The Outside Job category includes a lot of conspiracy theories itself (Israel did it; the Illuminati did it, etc) so you aren’t asking whether people “believe the official story” so much as whether they believe that the US government did it.
I take it from this you expect that in a few years evidence to support your theory will surface. Accordingly, will you update in favor of “no conspiracy” if this evidence fails to surface? Have you updated based on the fact that it has been more than 10 years and no evidence has surfaced?