I feel like the inside view and all-things-considered view needs to be its own post. The idea of maintaining two separate probabilities for different situations is pretty important, but many people won’t get this insight as this post is rather long. (Admittedly it’s slightly more complex in practise because the inside view might depend on judgements about other things which in turn have their own inside view and all-things-considered view).
The very most important thing about having the all-things-considered view is not multiply propogating the consensus belief, especially when the information flow is one-way: if you report your credence after updating from a consensus that you didn’t agree with, but without causing the consensus to update at least a tiny bit towards your belief, then someone who updates their inside view with the view you have after updating on others, and on the view that others have without updating on you, will develop and propogate errors even if everyone involved is doing the math diligently and accurately.
I feel like the inside view and all-things-considered view needs to be its own post. The idea of maintaining two separate probabilities for different situations is pretty important, but many people won’t get this insight as this post is rather long. (Admittedly it’s slightly more complex in practise because the inside view might depend on judgements about other things which in turn have their own inside view and all-things-considered view).
Old post on that: http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/04/naming-beliefs.html
Also related: https://meteuphoric.wordpress.com/2017/09/23/impression-track-records/
The very most important thing about having the all-things-considered view is not multiply propogating the consensus belief, especially when the information flow is one-way: if you report your credence after updating from a consensus that you didn’t agree with, but without causing the consensus to update at least a tiny bit towards your belief, then someone who updates their inside view with the view you have after updating on others, and on the view that others have without updating on you, will develop and propogate errors even if everyone involved is doing the math diligently and accurately.