POLL : Aging research booster
I wanted to take a poll among LW folk since this question I had didn’t seem to have a straight forward utilitarian answer. Please correct my impression, if wrong.
Situation
A government has a limited budget of USD $10 Billion, which it will award in 10 years with which it plans to encourage aging stoppage/reversal. It plans to do this in a relatively fair manner by announcing a competition in which various therapies will be evaluated.
The methodology is simple. The photographs of people who have undertaken the therapy and a control group are shown to people and they evaluate whether this person looks B years old or B + I years old. Similar checks are done with the blood and various other health checkups. These are evaluated by doctors, who answer the same question. Does this look like the report of one who is B or B+ I years old. All possible blindings are done correctly.
B is the base year against which the therapy will be evaluated and I is the increment of years for which the therapy should work.
For eg. the competition announcement can be. The government will offer the prize of $10 Billion to the team that demonstrates stoppage of aging from the age of 30 to 40. (Here, B is 30 and I is 10)
What do you think are the optimal values of B and I, given the constraints mentioned above (There are actually two variables which I assumed constant for this , the amount of the prize A and the time in which the research has to be done T.)
The reason I thought this wasn’t a straight forward question is that there seem to be tradeoffs between whether to increase the work life time (eg. 30 to 45) or should we cease aging at retirement time (eg. 60 to 75), allowing for greater leisure.
Assume that this therapy is tested on women.
[EDIT : Confusion with the poll system. The polls are in the first comment]
Base Year
[pollid:186]
Increment in Years
[pollid:187]
Why focus on appearance and not something more directly health-related?
Appearance is the aspect where ordinary people will be doing the judging.
I have explicitly mentioned that health reports will also be taken and assessed by doctors.
Why did I choose appearance?
There were a few triggers.
I had heard a comment about Ray Kurzweil in which the person commenting had mentioned that ” If he says that his body is that of a 30 year old, why doesn’t he look 30 years old”. For some reason, this comment stuck with me much longer than an arbitrary internet comment should have. Appearance is something that is easily gauged and difficult to really fake, atleast over a good period of I like 20 years (the median value in the survey as of yesterday)
Also, having an aspect of the study being done by ordinary people increases the populism of the proposal, increasing the probability of it being accepted.
Good answers—and I did miss the health reports part.
A kind request to those entering fantastically large values in the increment field.
The point of such a prize would be to reveal therapies that overcome the barriers to acceptance of the possibility of genuine aging reversal/stoppage. This prize is not envisaged to be given at a time when these therapies are mature and common knowledge.
V ibgrq sbe gur fvkgl gb friragl-svir enatr fhttrfgrq va gur cbfg. Hygvzngryl jr jnag gb fgbc ntvat dhvgr lbhat. Ohg V guvax evtug abj jr arrq gb sbphf ba jung npghnyyl xvyyf crbcyr. Jung npghnyyl xvyyf crbcyr gbqnl ner gur qvfrnfrf bs byq ntr gung orpbzr pbzzba nsgre ntrf nebhaq fvkgl. Jr’yy xabj jr’ir znqr cebterff vs fvtavsvpnagyl srjre crbcyr ner qrgrevbengvat bire gur vagreiny sebz fvkgl gb friragl-svir lrnef.
Va gur ybat eha V fhfcrpg jr jvyy fuvsg gb rneyvre vagreiragvbaf gung jvyy cerirag gur yvsrgvzr bs npphzhyngrq qnzntr gung V haqrefgnaq gb or gur pnhfr bs byq-ntr qvfrnfr. Ohg vs jr eha gur grfg ba sbegl-lrne-byqf, ubj qb jr xabj vs jr’er npghnyyl ceriragvat gur qvfrnfrf bs byq ntr?
V’z fcyvg nobhg gur inyvqvgl bs lbhe cbvag, Gur_Qhpx. Nppbeqvat gb Nhoerl QrTerl, ntvat vf na npphzhyngvba bs reebef gung bpphe nf n fvqr-rssrpg bs zrgnobyvfz/yvsr. Vs guvf npphzhyngvba vf yvarne jvgu gvzr, gura gjragl svir gb sbegl fubhyq or nf tbbq nf fvkgl gb friragl svir.
Gb zbfg crbcyr, gur ntr qvssrerapr frra orgjrra n gjragl svir naq n sbegl lrne byq znl frrz yvxr n ybg pbzcnerq gb gur qvssrerapr orgjrra n fvkgl naq friragl svir lrne byq.
Guvf gevttref n gubhtug va zr gung gur nffrffbef jub rinyhngr gur culfvpny nfcrpgf fubhyq or bs n fvzvyne ntr enatr. Gur qbpgbef pna or nal ntr bs pbhefr, cebivqrq gurl ner njner bs ntr eryngrq qvfrnfr.
Cypher in ro13 after you’ve voted:
V fhfcrpg V’ir zvfhaqrefgbbq gur dhrfgvba. Vg frrzf gbb boivbhf. Fgbc ntvat nf fbba nf gur obql unf svavfurq qrirybcvat. (Cebonoyl va gur zvqqyr bs lbhe gjragvrf, gubhtu V unira’g qbar gur erfrnepu.) Jvgu lbhe obql va crnx pbaqvgvba, jbex vf rnfvre naq cynlgvzr vf zber sha. Gehr, crbcyr va gurve friragvrf unir zber serr gvzr guna crbcyr va gurve gjragvrf. Ohg gung unf abguvat gb qb jvgu gurve obqvrf, vg’f whfg orpnhfr gurl unir gur svanaprf arprffnel gb ergver. Guvax bs ubj avpr vg jbhyq or gb jbex svir qrpnqrf, ergver, naq fgvyy unir n lbhat obql!
Nf sbe ubj ybat gur ntvat fubhyq or qrynlrq, jul abg sberire? Gurer’f ab nqinagntr lbhe obql orpbzvat zber qrpercvg. Gurer ner nqinagntrf gb byq-ntr, ohg gurl bognvarq vaqrcraqragyl bs lbhe obql orpbzvat qrpercvg.
N pevgvpny snpgbe bs gur vaperzrag cnenzrgre gubhtu vf ubj ybat jr pna nssbeq gb yrg gurfr fghqvrf gnxr. Gur ybatre gurl npghnyyl jbex, juvpu vf tbbq, ohg nyfb gur zber punapr jr unir bs zvffvat cnegvnyyl-rssrpgvir gerngzragf be qvfpneqvat cbffvoyr gerngzragf gung jvgu fbzr vzcebirzrag zvtug or ernyyl tbbq.
Yvxrjvfr, ybatre vaperzragf zrna ybatre gvzrf jr unir gb jnvg nebhaq gjvqqyvat bhe guhzof juvyr gur fhowrpgf naq pbagebyf npghnyyl ntr, qhevat juvpu crbcyr ner qlvat jbeyqjvqr rnpu nqqvgvbany lrne vs gur gerngzrag gheaf bhg gb jbex naq or purnc rabhtu.
V qb pbafvqre vg boivbhf gubhtu gung lbh jnag gb fgnl ng gur ovbybtvpny ntr jurer lbhe obql vf orfg, ohg nyfb zber vzcbegnagyl, jurer lbhe zvaq vf ng vgf funecrfg.
V nterr. Gung vf cerpvfryl zl gubhtug cebprff oruvaq juvpu V nfxrq gurfr dhrfgvbaf. Guvf cevmr vf gubhtug gb or bar frg bhg ng gur rneyvre fgntrf bs nagv ntvat gurencl, abg bar jurer gur gurencvrf ner rfgnoyvfurq.
Gunaxf sbe lbhe vachgf, Qn Senaxre naq Zvyrl.