Thanks for this analysis. While it doesn’t directly answer the question I intended to ask, this is a surprising answer to the more practical question of “how much impact does a random researcher working on frontier AI have”, especially since it seems that you were, at every step, trying to make the impact as large as possible.
Is it reasonable to assume that contributions of the sample of researchers to software follow an 80⁄20 pareto distribution and that the population of the sample is about 10k? If so, I can make the relevant modifications here. The part I’m most curious about from people with a good understanding of these institutions is what the power law is like in contribution to research.
Thanks for this analysis. While it doesn’t directly answer the question I intended to ask, this is a surprising answer to the more practical question of “how much impact does a random researcher working on frontier AI have”, especially since it seems that you were, at every step, trying to make the impact as large as possible.
Is it reasonable to assume that contributions of the sample of researchers to software follow an 80⁄20 pareto distribution and that the population of the sample is about 10k? If so, I can make the relevant modifications here. The part I’m most curious about from people with a good understanding of these institutions is what the power law is like in contribution to research.