Formerly, I think I would have chosen #2 in the first case and #1 in the second. But Eliezer has converted me. Now I choose #2 in both cases. But would he do that himself?
Isn’t that implicitly what he does for a living? Eliezer could become a firefighter or emergency medical technician, or work for clean drinking water in rural Africa, with a near-certainty of preventing several deaths in the next year. Meanwhile, there is a very small chance of someone creating an non-Friendly AI in the next year. We can argue about the probabilities (of the problem arising, of successfully presenting it), but Eliezer has already chosen the existential threat.
Formerly, I think I would have chosen #2 in the first case and #1 in the second. But Eliezer has converted me. Now I choose #2 in both cases. But would he do that himself?
Isn’t that implicitly what he does for a living? Eliezer could become a firefighter or emergency medical technician, or work for clean drinking water in rural Africa, with a near-certainty of preventing several deaths in the next year. Meanwhile, there is a very small chance of someone creating an non-Friendly AI in the next year. We can argue about the probabilities (of the problem arising, of successfully presenting it), but Eliezer has already chosen the existential threat.