Well, suppose I think the probability that Johnson would be the best president is 40%, the probability that Clinton would be is 30%, that Stein would be is 20%, and that Trump would be is 10%...
In a first past the post election third parties are irrelevant.
More specifically, the calculations above apply to a close election. 538 gives Johnson a less than 0.01% chance of winning. Obviously the probability of you being the tie breaking vote is many many orders of magnitude smaller than is worth calculating.
Third parties aren’t stable. They can appear, but they inevitably split the vote. They always hurt their cause more than help it. Unless they are so popular they can outright replace one of the parties.
Well, suppose I think the probability that Johnson would be the best president is 40%, the probability that Clinton would be is 30%, that Stein would be is 20%, and that Trump would be is 10%...
In a first past the post election third parties are irrelevant.
More specifically, the calculations above apply to a close election. 538 gives Johnson a less than 0.01% chance of winning. Obviously the probability of you being the tie breaking vote is many many orders of magnitude smaller than is worth calculating.
*Looks at the UK*
Are they, now?
Third parties aren’t stable. They can appear, but they inevitably split the vote. They always hurt their cause more than help it. Unless they are so popular they can outright replace one of the parties.
Huh? You mean for their cause it’s better to just curl up and die, but refusing to do so subverts their cause..?
Basically yes. First Past The Post does not satisfy the criteria Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives.
Looking at reality (as opposed to theoretical abstractions), this does not seem to be true.