One way of looking at this problem, that fits well with an expansion I am trying to figure out, is that when I know Robin’s position on the question, I should update my probability distribution for Eliezer’s position, which should affect the likelihood ratios for Eliezer’s observed position with respect to the positions of the person whose opinion is being predicted.
One way of looking at this problem, that fits well with an expansion I am trying to figure out, is that when I know Robin’s position on the question, I should update my probability distribution for Eliezer’s position, which should affect the likelihood ratios for Eliezer’s observed position with respect to the positions of the person whose opinion is being predicted.