Although this is an old question, I want to provide an answer, since this is a topic that I am interested in and believe matters for GCR and X-Risk reduction, though it seems quite plausible that this field will radically transform under different level of AI capabilities.
First, if the author of this post has updated their believes about the field of decline and collapse or has formulated a resource list of their own, I would appreciate these being remarked, so I may engage with them.
Of note, I have not fully read some of these books and other resources, but I have minimally skimmed all of them. There are resources I am not including, since these I feel are not worth their time in opportunity costs.
The following are not put in priority order, but I have provided simple ratings of one to three ✯ indicating how much I believe the books are valuable to thinking about collapse. Ratings come after titles so as not to prime the reader.
Anna’s previous comment used the term “proto-model” and alluded to the greater dearth of formalization in this field. It is worth adding here that “this field” (which, at times, I have referred to as “cliodynamics”, “studies in complex societies”, “historical dynamics”, “studies in collapse”, “civilizational dynamics”), is a collection of different academic disciplines, each of which has different levels of quantitative rigor.
Many who have entertained theorizing about human societies and their rise and fall (even the notions of “rise” and “fall” are somewhat dubious) have seldom incorporated quantitative measures or models, though I have still found their work valuable.
The authors in the anthology How Worlds Collapse seem not to interact and or collaborate much with those who study global catastrophic risk (e.g., those who would cite books such as X-Risk or Global Catastrophic Risks), which seems to be a loss for both fields, since those studying GCR and or X-Risks have adopted, more readily (or seemingly so), models and mathematics, with a good canonical paper for the latter entry being Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks (2018), and those in the field of collapse typically are more ready to consider patterns across historical complex societies and psychological dynamics relevant to recovery of complex societies under forces of calamity.
Anyway, best of wishes in your studies of human societies and their dynamics, including their decline.
From their sites: Seshat: Global History Databank was founded in 2011 to bring together the most current and comprehensive body of knowledge about human history in one place. The huge potential of this knowledge for testing theories about political and economic development has been largely untapped. Our unique Databank systematically collects what is currently known about the social and political organization of human societies and how civilizations have evolved over time. This massive collection of historical information allows us and others to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.
Although this is an old question, I want to provide an answer, since this is a topic that I am interested in and believe matters for GCR and X-Risk reduction, though it seems quite plausible that this field will radically transform under different level of AI capabilities.
First, if the author of this post has updated their believes about the field of decline and collapse or has formulated a resource list of their own, I would appreciate these being remarked, so I may engage with them.
Of note, I have not fully read some of these books and other resources, but I have minimally skimmed all of them. There are resources I am not including, since these I feel are not worth their time in opportunity costs.
The following are not put in priority order, but I have provided simple ratings of one to three ✯ indicating how much I believe the books are valuable to thinking about collapse. Ratings come after titles so as not to prime the reader.
Books:
How Worlds Collapse ✯✯✯
The Collapse Of Complex Societies ✯✯✯
Secular Cycles ✯✯
Modernity And Cultural Decline ✯
Historical Dynamics ✯✯✯
Social and Cultural Dynamics ✯
Understanding Collapse ✯✯
The Evolution of Civilizations ✯
After 1177 B.C.: The Survival of Civilizations ✯
Prophets Of Doom ✯✯ [1]
The Idea Of Decline In Western History ✯
The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire ✯✯
Web-Links:
The Seshat Dataset (here and here) [2]
Google Scholar citations for Historical Dynamics
Google Scholar citations for The Collapse Of Complex Societies
The Seshat Database on GitHub
Peter Turchin’s Website
Some further considerations
Anna’s previous comment used the term “proto-model” and alluded to the greater dearth of formalization in this field. It is worth adding here that “this field” (which, at times, I have referred to as “cliodynamics”, “studies in complex societies”, “historical dynamics”, “studies in collapse”, “civilizational dynamics”), is a collection of different academic disciplines, each of which has different levels of quantitative rigor.
Many who have entertained theorizing about human societies and their rise and fall (even the notions of “rise” and “fall” are somewhat dubious) have seldom incorporated quantitative measures or models, though I have still found their work valuable.
The authors in the anthology How Worlds Collapse seem not to interact and or collaborate much with those who study global catastrophic risk (e.g., those who would cite books such as X-Risk or Global Catastrophic Risks), which seems to be a loss for both fields, since those studying GCR and or X-Risks have adopted, more readily (or seemingly so), models and mathematics, with a good canonical paper for the latter entry being Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks (2018), and those in the field of collapse typically are more ready to consider patterns across historical complex societies and psychological dynamics relevant to recovery of complex societies under forces of calamity.
Anyway, best of wishes in your studies of human societies and their dynamics, including their decline.
This covers Toynbee, Spengler, Gobineau, and other historical figures in the field of “collapse” or “complex societies”, including Peter Turchin.
From their sites: Seshat: Global History Databank was founded in 2011 to bring together the most current and comprehensive body of knowledge about human history in one place. The huge potential of this knowledge for testing theories about political and economic development has been largely untapped. Our unique Databank systematically collects what is currently known about the social and political organization of human societies and how civilizations have evolved over time. This massive collection of historical information allows us and others to rigorously test different hypotheses about the rise and fall of large-scale societies across the globe and human history.