The examples make me think of reference class tennis.
A central question related to this post is “which reference class should you use to answer your question?” A key point is that it depends on how much selection pressure there is on your reference class with respect to your query.
The examples make me think of reference class tennis.
A central question related to this post is “which reference class should you use to answer your question?” A key point is that it depends on how much selection pressure there is on your reference class with respect to your query.