On the 1% vs 0.001% note, a framework of measurement I prefer over absolute impact is relative impact, which is more intuitive. For example, considering AI safety, how is 1% measured empirically? Without a unit of measure, numbers don’t reveal much. But an inequality does. I can tell you with certainty that Nanda has done more than me (so far). Or that p(flourishing) is greater than zero.
All that to say, in a world that seems so overwhelming, a good fix for nihilism can be found in relative measurement. In the grand scheme of things, individual impact is minuscule and thus often demoralizing to try and measure. However, if I do better than I did yesterday/last month/last year, and many others try as well, I can keep the motivation high to keep on.
I think relative impact is an important measure (e.g., for comparing yourself/your org to others in a reference class), but worry about relative-impact-as-a-morale-booster leading to a belief-in-belief. It can be true that I am a better sprinter than my neighbor, but we will both lose to a 747, and it is important for me to internalize that. I think you can be happy/sane while internalizing that!
very true! Actually, the best fix for nihilism (in my experience) has been acceptance, followed by revolt, of whatever existential threat is causing it (i.e. absurdism). The 747 will always outrun me, so I will be content just running for the sake of it.
In the pursuit of AI safety, I think the cases of AGI apocalypse and AGI happening at all are equally unpredictable. I personally see them as feasible within our lifetimes, but with no smaller range of certainty than that. The uncertainty of that makes it feel strange to build a career around it, yet the existential dread does not go away. So, I choose to find things within the space that I enjoy learning about, working on, and applying myself to, and accept that it may very well be unfruitful in the end.
It’s cliché to say that the journey matters more than the destination, as that is not always true, but I do think one can choose to find intrinsic value in the act of doing. I chose to start thinking this way, andits going pretty good so far :)
On the 1% vs 0.001% note, a framework of measurement I prefer over absolute impact is relative impact, which is more intuitive. For example, considering AI safety, how is 1% measured empirically? Without a unit of measure, numbers don’t reveal much. But an inequality does. I can tell you with certainty that Nanda has done more than me (so far). Or that p(flourishing) is greater than zero.
All that to say, in a world that seems so overwhelming, a good fix for nihilism can be found in relative measurement. In the grand scheme of things, individual impact is minuscule and thus often demoralizing to try and measure. However, if I do better than I did yesterday/last month/last year, and many others try as well, I can keep the motivation high to keep on.
I think relative impact is an important measure (e.g., for comparing yourself/your org to others in a reference class), but worry about relative-impact-as-a-morale-booster leading to a belief-in-belief. It can be true that I am a better sprinter than my neighbor, but we will both lose to a 747, and it is important for me to internalize that. I think you can be happy/sane while internalizing that!
very true! Actually, the best fix for nihilism (in my experience) has been acceptance, followed by revolt, of whatever existential threat is causing it (i.e. absurdism). The 747 will always outrun me, so I will be content just running for the sake of it.
In the pursuit of AI safety, I think the cases of AGI apocalypse and AGI happening at all are equally unpredictable. I personally see them as feasible within our lifetimes, but with no smaller range of certainty than that. The uncertainty of that makes it feel strange to build a career around it, yet the existential dread does not go away. So, I choose to find things within the space that I enjoy learning about, working on, and applying myself to, and accept that it may very well be unfruitful in the end.
It’s cliché to say that the journey matters more than the destination, as that is not always true, but I do think one can choose to find intrinsic value in the act of doing. I chose to start thinking this way, and its going pretty good so far :)