Conservation of expected evidence, if I see an Amazon review page with reviews saying “instead of office chair, package contained bobcat” my odds they’re sending bobcats did go up at least somewhat.
Yes, of course. But your odds that it’s a competitor’s plot should also go up—and will end up higher by far. (This is one of the myriad examples of what Jaynes called the “resurrection of dead hypotheses”.)
Yes, of course. But your odds that it’s a competitor’s plot should also go up—and will end up higher by far. (This is one of the myriad examples of what Jaynes called the “resurrection of dead hypotheses”.)