For reference, the Zoe symptoms app project estimates around 1.3-2% prevalence of symptomatic Covid for London burrows: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
I think asymptomatic cases are maybe 40%? Have seen it be a bit higher, but I doubt the higher numbers for asymptomatic cases. Going with 50% asymptomatic, this would indicate prevalence of 2.6-4%. That’s for today. Your estimate is 2 days in the future, so plausible but maybe a bit high?
Under the assumption that Omicron is 50% of cases today, and doubling time 2.5 days, maybe that would give 5-6% on the 16th.
For reference, the Zoe symptoms app project estimates around 1.3-2% prevalence of symptomatic Covid for London burrows: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data
I think asymptomatic cases are maybe 40%? Have seen it be a bit higher, but I doubt the higher numbers for asymptomatic cases. Going with 50% asymptomatic, this would indicate prevalence of 2.6-4%. That’s for today. Your estimate is 2 days in the future, so plausible but maybe a bit high?
Under the assumption that Omicron is 50% of cases today, and doubling time 2.5 days, maybe that would give 5-6% on the 16th.