(One note that may be of use: I think the incentives for “cultivating more/better researchers in a preparadigmatic field” lean towards “don’t discourage even less-promising researchers, because they could luck out and suddenly be good/useful to alignment in an unexpected way”. Like how investors encourage startup founders because they bet on a flock of them, not necessarily because any particular founder’s best bet is to found a startup. This isn’t necessarily bad, it just puts the incentives into perspective.)
I, too, am interested in this question.
(One note that may be of use: I think the incentives for “cultivating more/better researchers in a preparadigmatic field” lean towards “don’t discourage even less-promising researchers, because they could luck out and suddenly be good/useful to alignment in an unexpected way”. Like how investors encourage startup founders because they bet on a flock of them, not necessarily because any particular founder’s best bet is to found a startup. This isn’t necessarily bad, it just puts the incentives into perspective.)