Maybe here’s a compromise position: Strong evidence is common. I am in possession of probably millions of bits of information pertaining to x-risks and the future of humanity, and then the Doomsday Argument provides, like, 10 additional bits of information beyond that. It’s not that the argument is wrong, it’s just that it’s an infinitesimally weak piece of evidence compared to everything else.
Thanks for making this point and connecting it to that post. I’ve been thinking that something like this might be the right way to think about a lot of this anthropics stuff — yes, we should use anthropic reasoning to inform our priors, but also we shouldn’t be afraid to update on all the detailed data we do have. (And some examples of anthropics-informed reasoning seem not to do enough of that updating.)
Thanks for making this point and connecting it to that post. I’ve been thinking that something like this might be the right way to think about a lot of this anthropics stuff — yes, we should use anthropic reasoning to inform our priors, but also we shouldn’t be afraid to update on all the detailed data we do have. (And some examples of anthropics-informed reasoning seem not to do enough of that updating.)
FWIW this has also been my suspicion for a while.