Academics are familiar with
a related example: finishing our papers almost always
takes us longer than we expected. We all know this and
often say so. Why then do we continue to make the
same error? Here again, the outside view does not inform judgments of particular cases.
From
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts
A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by
Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo
Alright, I will add a bit more context:
From Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking by Daniel Kahneman and Dan Lovallo
Ah, that makes much more sense. Thanks.