I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect such evidence to appear after such short period of time. There were no hard evidence that electricity is useful in a sense you are talking about until 1920s. Current LLMs are clearly not AGIs in a sense that they can integrate into economy as migrant labor, therefore, productivity gains from LLMs are bottlenecked on users.
I find this reply broadly reasonable, but I’d like to see some systematic investigations of the analogy between gradual adoption and rising utility of electricity and gradual adoption and rising utility of LLMs (as well as other “truly novel technologies”).
There is a difference between adoption as in “people are using it” and adoption as in “people are using it in economically productive way”. I think supermajority of productivity from LLMs is realized as pure consumer surplus right now.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect such evidence to appear after such short period of time. There were no hard evidence that electricity is useful in a sense you are talking about until 1920s. Current LLMs are clearly not AGIs in a sense that they can integrate into economy as migrant labor, therefore, productivity gains from LLMs are bottlenecked on users.
I find this reply broadly reasonable, but I’d like to see some systematic investigations of the analogy between gradual adoption and rising utility of electricity and gradual adoption and rising utility of LLMs (as well as other “truly novel technologies”).
That’s interesting, but adoption of LLMs has been quite fast.
There is a difference between adoption as in “people are using it” and adoption as in “people are using it in economically productive way”. I think supermajority of productivity from LLMs is realized as pure consumer surplus right now.
I understand your theory.
However I am asking in this post for hard evidence.
If there is no hard evidence, that doesn’t prove a negative, but it does mean a lot of LW is engaging in a heavy amount of speculation.