The idea is that we can break any decision problem down by cases (like “insofar as the predictor is accurate, …” and “insofar as the predictor is inaccurate, …”) and that all the competing decision theories (CDT, EDT, LDT) agree about how to aggregate cases.

Doesn’t this also require that all the decision theories agree that the conditioning fact is independent of your decision?

Otherwise you could break down the normal prisoners dilemma into “insofar as the opponent makes the same move as me” and “insofar as the opponent makes the opposite move” and conclude that defect isn’t the dominant strategy even there, not even under CDT.

And I imagine the within-CDT perspective would reject an independent probability for the predictors accuracy. After all, theres an independent probability it guessed 1-box, and if I 1-box it’s right with that probability, and if I 2-box it’s right with 1 minus that probability.

Doesn’t this also require that all the decision theories agree that the conditioning fact is independent of your decision?

Otherwise you could break down the normal prisoners dilemma into “insofar as the opponent makes the same move as me” and “insofar as the opponent makes the opposite move” and conclude that defect isn’t the dominant strategy even there, not even under CDT.

And I imagine the within-CDT perspective would reject an independent probability for the predictors accuracy. After all, theres an independent probability it guessed 1-box, and if I 1-box it’s right with that probability, and if I 2-box it’s right with 1 minus that probability.