An analogous principle operates in rigorous probabilistic reasoning about causality. … We count each piece of evidence exactly once; no update message ever “bounces” back and forth. The exact algorithm may be found in Judea Pearl’s classic “Probabilistic Reasoning …
Actually, Pearl’s algorithm only works for a tree of cause/effects. For non-trees it is provably hard, and it remains an open question how best to update. I actually need a good non-tree method without predictable errors for combinatorial market scoring rules.
An analogous principle operates in rigorous probabilistic reasoning about causality. … We count each piece of evidence exactly once; no update message ever “bounces” back and forth. The exact algorithm may be found in Judea Pearl’s classic “Probabilistic Reasoning …
Actually, Pearl’s algorithm only works for a tree of cause/effects. For non-trees it is provably hard, and it remains an open question how best to update. I actually need a good non-tree method without predictable errors for combinatorial market scoring rules.