As you know from our conversations, I’m largely in the same camp as you on this point.
But one point I’d make incrementally is this: USG folks are also concerned about warning shots of the nature, “The President’s Daily Brief ran an article 6 months ago saying warning signs for dangerous thing X would be events W, Y, and Z, and today the PDB had an article saying our intelligence agencies assess that Y and Z have happened due to super secret stuff”.
If rationalists want rationalist warning shots to be included, they need to convince relevant government analytic stakeholders of their relevance.
As you know from our conversations, I’m largely in the same camp as you on this point.
But one point I’d make incrementally is this: USG folks are also concerned about warning shots of the nature, “The President’s Daily Brief ran an article 6 months ago saying warning signs for dangerous thing X would be events W, Y, and Z, and today the PDB had an article saying our intelligence agencies assess that Y and Z have happened due to super secret stuff”.
If rationalists want rationalist warning shots to be included, they need to convince relevant government analytic stakeholders of their relevance.