Let me clarify. In most of the 5% of worlds, people and companies may keep on operating the models (e.g., GPT 5.5) that have already seen widespread deployment on the theory that any truly catastrophic damage they are capable of causing would have been caused by now. (And they are useful.)
Anything that cannot outwit the FBI poses an acceptably-low level of extinction risk IMHO. No matter how instances of GPT 5.5 are arranged or combined, the combination is quite unlikely to be able to outwit the FBI in a decisive and permanent manner because of fundamental limitations in GPT 5.5 relative to the human cognitive architecture that I am very confident (but not completely certain) would require training up a new fundamental model to overcome.
Please let me know if you disagree with that last sentence.
(I use the FBI as an example of a competent and well-resourced human-controlled organization, not to suggest that the FBI will be central to stopping any AI-controlled system or process that needs to be stopped.)
I am not “outwitting the FBI” is a good operationalization, but I agree that whether through misalignment or misuse, none of the existing models (eg GPT 5.5, Opus 4.8, Myhtos, Gemini etc) can cause human extinction
So the Op Ed is only relevant in the 3% of the probability space where people need advice for adapting economically for AI
Let me clarify. In most of the 5% of worlds, people and companies may keep on operating the models (e.g., GPT 5.5) that have already seen widespread deployment on the theory that any truly catastrophic damage they are capable of causing would have been caused by now. (And they are useful.)
Anything that cannot outwit the FBI poses an acceptably-low level of extinction risk IMHO. No matter how instances of GPT 5.5 are arranged or combined, the combination is quite unlikely to be able to outwit the FBI in a decisive and permanent manner because of fundamental limitations in GPT 5.5 relative to the human cognitive architecture that I am very confident (but not completely certain) would require training up a new fundamental model to overcome.
Please let me know if you disagree with that last sentence.
(I use the FBI as an example of a competent and well-resourced human-controlled organization, not to suggest that the FBI will be central to stopping any AI-controlled system or process that needs to be stopped.)
I am not “outwitting the FBI” is a good operationalization, but I agree that whether through misalignment or misuse, none of the existing models (eg GPT 5.5, Opus 4.8, Myhtos, Gemini etc) can cause human extinction