My point is that every disaster likelihood estimate goes through the periods of small and large fluctuations, the only difference between “stable” and “unstable” risks is which phase you are currently in. It would not be a good model to decide that one type of risk is inherently “stable” and another is “unstable”.
My point is that every disaster likelihood estimate goes through the periods of small and large fluctuations, the only difference between “stable” and “unstable” risks is which phase you are currently in. It would not be a good model to decide that one type of risk is inherently “stable” and another is “unstable”.
I think you need to zoom out by a level of abstraction here. Does the argument make sense to you then?