I think you have more confidence than I do in society’s ability to do the right thing when presented with overwhelming evidence about what the right thing to do is.
Another reasonably likely scenario is that we do get a pause or otherwise get enough time to patch the issues with contemporary frontier models; scaling resumes; and then the new frontier models are misaligned in new ways and everyone dies in spite of all the extra safety effort.
I agree directionally (the last couple weeks are a positive update!), but I disagree that “it kind of seems unlikely that this trajectory results in extinction.”
I think you have more confidence than I do in society’s ability to do the right thing when presented with overwhelming evidence about what the right thing to do is.
Another reasonably likely scenario is that we do get a pause or otherwise get enough time to patch the issues with contemporary frontier models; scaling resumes; and then the new frontier models are misaligned in new ways and everyone dies in spite of all the extra safety effort.
I agree directionally (the last couple weeks are a positive update!), but I disagree that “it kind of seems unlikely that this trajectory results in extinction.”