Interesting take. I don’t know how I feel about this. I guess if I was 100% down on a pause I’d be more likely to go for this. My intuition is that this plan has too many moving parts. You can try to wake up middle nations in the hope that they’ll try to slow development… but who know what the heck they’ll do? My intuition is that in many circumstances incentives are overruled by ideology. In repeated game scenarios, incentives can eventually bend or displace ideology, but it’s not clear to me that we should expect this to happen here.
What is the ideology in middle powers you fear of? What are the harmful actions that middle powers might do if they get AGI-pilled?
(Maybe you might be worried that these countries attempt building their own AGI, but it seems extremely unlikely these countries would be able to race ahead the US or China. The worst that could come from that is slightly worse arms race and lots of middle power money wasted)
Interesting take. I don’t know how I feel about this. I guess if I was 100% down on a pause I’d be more likely to go for this. My intuition is that this plan has too many moving parts. You can try to wake up middle nations in the hope that they’ll try to slow development… but who know what the heck they’ll do? My intuition is that in many circumstances incentives are overruled by ideology. In repeated game scenarios, incentives can eventually bend or displace ideology, but it’s not clear to me that we should expect this to happen here.
What is the ideology in middle powers you fear of? What are the harmful actions that middle powers might do if they get AGI-pilled?
(Maybe you might be worried that these countries attempt building their own AGI, but it seems extremely unlikely these countries would be able to race ahead the US or China. The worst that could come from that is slightly worse arms race and lots of middle power money wasted)
My actual claim was more modest: that their actions will be much more diverse/random than the OP suggests.