When combined with increased deployment from increased deployment and job replacement, I think it will probably wake up the public more than AI researchers. And I think some researchers will just go along with public opinion by accident, since that’s the path of least resistance.
I also agree that the alarm might not outweigh the increased rate of progress.
I also want to note that it doesn’t take a breakthrough. Continuous learning already exists (fine-tuning and RAG designed for that purpose, and context engineering). These aren’t good enough yet to make major waves or allow really long-term progress, but continued progress will steadily push them to new deployments. Slow steady progress tilts the balance toward the alarm being more beneficial. But maybe not enough.
I tried to elaborate on that intuition in A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI progress and public alarm.
When combined with increased deployment from increased deployment and job replacement, I think it will probably wake up the public more than AI researchers. And I think some researchers will just go along with public opinion by accident, since that’s the path of least resistance.
I also agree that the alarm might not outweigh the increased rate of progress.
I also want to note that it doesn’t take a breakthrough. Continuous learning already exists (fine-tuning and RAG designed for that purpose, and context engineering). These aren’t good enough yet to make major waves or allow really long-term progress, but continued progress will steadily push them to new deployments. Slow steady progress tilts the balance toward the alarm being more beneficial. But maybe not enough.