The question of which temperature / global climate is optimal is rarely discussed, suggesting that the current climate is unlikely to be optimal.
Agree that this topic is not widely discussed in mainstream climate science as such, but not sure your conclusion follows.
The chances of the current global climate being optimal would be pretty remote, except for the facts that one very powerful (but slow) optimisation process has been busy adapting the existing biota (including humans) to the climate, followed by an even more powerful and much more rapid optimisation process adapting human capital and expertise to the existing climate.
It’s not that we can’t adapt to another set of climate and weather patterns, it’s that it’ll have a cost. There certainly is a reasonable amount of discussion in the mainstream climate literature about the likely costs of adaptation. Which, of course, one needs to weigh against the likely benefits.
Predicting the local weather impact of global climate change is fearsomely difficult and uncertain (far more so than global temperature), which makes adding up the cost/benefit analysis extremely difficult. (And makes planning long-term capital investments difficult.)
It seems to me pretty likely that the current global climate is at least a local optimum for humans.
It seems to me pretty likely that the current global climate is at least a local optimum for humans.
I think this depends on what you mean by “for humans.” We’re an equatorial species, and most of our global population is living in colder climates than most of our evolutionary adaptation was geared towards. However, humans are highly robust within a wide range of temperatures; many of the species we depend upon, less so.
except for the facts that one very powerful (but slow) optimisation process has been busy adapting the existing biota (including humans) to the climate, followed by an even more powerful and much more rapid optimisation process adapting human capital and expertise to the existing climate.
The first seems insignificant (given the second and the changing climate) and the second seems self-defeating (if we invented air conditioning to deal with the outside not being the correct temperature, it’s not at all obvious that local air-conditioning is the best way to manage the climate, especially given the known issues with using local heat dumps in, say, cities).
Which, of course, one needs to weigh against the likely benefits.
This is the point that I think is actually contentious in the wider world, but should not be.
It seems to me pretty likely that the current global climate is at least a local optimum for humans.
That seems unlikely. First, which one is optimal—the one right now when we already warmed up a bit, or, say, the climate of mid-XIX century? And second, the already posted link shows that within a particular range of temperature and CO2 concentration increasing them increased the world’s GDP. We are not at the end of that range so increasing the temperature and the CO2 further would get us closer to optimality—meaning we’re not there yet.
And second, the already posted link shows that within a particular range of temperature and CO2 concentration increasing them increased the world’s GDP. We are not at the end of that range so increasing the temperature and the CO2 further would get us closer to optimality
It takes some time for added CO₂ to exert its full effect on temperature. Because of that lag, I’d expect CO₂ levels to hit their optimum before temperature does, so it’s worth considering them separately.
-- meaning we’re not there yet.
The results at that link and in its underlying source suggest we’re at (and maybe beyond) the optimum CO₂ level already. According to that paper, the temperature won’t reach the calculated optimum of 1.2°C to 1.3°C until 2025. But the CO₂ level is already high enough that we’re likely to overshoot that temperature unless we cut emissions aggressively.
Agree that this topic is not widely discussed in mainstream climate science as such, but not sure your conclusion follows.
The chances of the current global climate being optimal would be pretty remote, except for the facts that one very powerful (but slow) optimisation process has been busy adapting the existing biota (including humans) to the climate, followed by an even more powerful and much more rapid optimisation process adapting human capital and expertise to the existing climate.
It’s not that we can’t adapt to another set of climate and weather patterns, it’s that it’ll have a cost. There certainly is a reasonable amount of discussion in the mainstream climate literature about the likely costs of adaptation. Which, of course, one needs to weigh against the likely benefits.
Predicting the local weather impact of global climate change is fearsomely difficult and uncertain (far more so than global temperature), which makes adding up the cost/benefit analysis extremely difficult. (And makes planning long-term capital investments difficult.)
It seems to me pretty likely that the current global climate is at least a local optimum for humans.
I think this depends on what you mean by “for humans.” We’re an equatorial species, and most of our global population is living in colder climates than most of our evolutionary adaptation was geared towards. However, humans are highly robust within a wide range of temperatures; many of the species we depend upon, less so.
The first seems insignificant (given the second and the changing climate) and the second seems self-defeating (if we invented air conditioning to deal with the outside not being the correct temperature, it’s not at all obvious that local air-conditioning is the best way to manage the climate, especially given the known issues with using local heat dumps in, say, cities).
This is the point that I think is actually contentious in the wider world, but should not be.
That seems unlikely. First, which one is optimal—the one right now when we already warmed up a bit, or, say, the climate of mid-XIX century? And second, the already posted link shows that within a particular range of temperature and CO2 concentration increasing them increased the world’s GDP. We are not at the end of that range so increasing the temperature and the CO2 further would get us closer to optimality—meaning we’re not there yet.
It takes some time for added CO₂ to exert its full effect on temperature. Because of that lag, I’d expect CO₂ levels to hit their optimum before temperature does, so it’s worth considering them separately.
The results at that link and in its underlying source suggest we’re at (and maybe beyond) the optimum CO₂ level already. According to that paper, the temperature won’t reach the calculated optimum of 1.2°C to 1.3°C until 2025. But the CO₂ level is already high enough that we’re likely to overshoot that temperature unless we cut emissions aggressively.