I think you’re misunderstanding me, but I can’t think of a way to better phrase what I said, sorry.
Maybe if I put it thus: I can’t think of a situation where some evidence E will make my posterior probability P(A|E) greater than 0.8 regardless of my prior P(A).
Yeah, re-reading the quote, I see what you mean. He seems to have confused a frequency with a probability distribution over possible values of the frequency. Maybe that’s why he made the other error that the post discusses.
I think you’re misunderstanding me, but I can’t think of a way to better phrase what I said, sorry.
Maybe if I put it thus: I can’t think of a situation where some evidence E will make my posterior probability P(A|E) greater than 0.8 regardless of my prior P(A).
Yeah, re-reading the quote, I see what you mean. He seems to have confused a frequency with a probability distribution over possible values of the frequency. Maybe that’s why he made the other error that the post discusses.