This seems wrong to me too. His prior shows that he has some other information about Peterson, but then he throws it out.
P(A|ε) = P(A & ε)/P(ε) = 0.1/0.2 = 0.5 != 0.8
This failure to use all of the evidence is exactly what Jaynes warns against for much of PT:LoS.
This seems wrong to me too. His prior shows that he has some other information about Peterson, but then he throws it out.
P(A|ε) = P(A & ε)/P(ε) = 0.1/0.2 = 0.5 != 0.8
This failure to use all of the evidence is exactly what Jaynes warns against for much of PT:LoS.