I enjoyed reading this comment rather a lot, since it allowed me to find myself in the not-too-common circumstance of noticing that I disagree with Eliezer to a significant (for me) degree.
Insofar as I’m able to put a number on my estimation of existential risks from AI, I also think that they’re not under 5%. But I’m not really in the habit of getting into debates on this matter with anyone. The case that I make for myself (or others) for supporting SIAI is rather of the following kind:
If there are any noticeable existential risks, it’s extremely important to spend resources on addressing them.
When looking at the various existential risks, most are somewhat simple to understand (at least after one has expended some effort on it), and are either already receiving a somewhat satisfactory amount of attention, or are likely to receive such attention before too long. (This doesn’t necessarily mean that they would be of a small probability, but rather that what can be done already seems like it’s mostly gonna get done.)
AI risks stand out as a special case, that seems really difficult to understand. There’s an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty in estimates I’m able to make of their probability; in fact I find it very difficult to make any satisfactorily rigorous estimations at all. Such lack of understanding is a potentially very dangerous thing. I want to support more research into this.
The key point in my attitude that I would emphasize, is the interest in existential risks in general. I wouldn’t try to seriously talk about AI risks to anyone who couldn’t first be stimulated to find within themselves such a more general serious interest. And then, if people have that general interest, they’re interested in going over the various existential risks there are, and it seems to me that sufficiently smart ones realize that the AI risks are a more difficult topic than others (at least after reading e.g. SIAI stuff; things might seem deceptively simple before one has a minimum threshold level of understanding).
So, my disagreement is that I indeed would to a degree avoid debates over probability. After a general interest in existential risks being present, I would instead of probabilities argue about the difficulty of the AI topic, and how such a lack of understanding is a very dangerous thing.
(I’m not really expressing a view on whether my approach is better or worse, though. Haven’t reflected on the matter sufficiently to form a real opinion on that, though for the time being I do continue to cling to my view instead of what Eliezer advocated.)
I enjoyed reading this comment rather a lot, since it allowed me to find myself in the not-too-common circumstance of noticing that I disagree with Eliezer to a significant (for me) degree.
Insofar as I’m able to put a number on my estimation of existential risks from AI, I also think that they’re not under 5%. But I’m not really in the habit of getting into debates on this matter with anyone. The case that I make for myself (or others) for supporting SIAI is rather of the following kind:
If there are any noticeable existential risks, it’s extremely important to spend resources on addressing them.
When looking at the various existential risks, most are somewhat simple to understand (at least after one has expended some effort on it), and are either already receiving a somewhat satisfactory amount of attention, or are likely to receive such attention before too long. (This doesn’t necessarily mean that they would be of a small probability, but rather that what can be done already seems like it’s mostly gonna get done.)
AI risks stand out as a special case, that seems really difficult to understand. There’s an exceptionally high degree of uncertainty in estimates I’m able to make of their probability; in fact I find it very difficult to make any satisfactorily rigorous estimations at all. Such lack of understanding is a potentially very dangerous thing. I want to support more research into this.
The key point in my attitude that I would emphasize, is the interest in existential risks in general. I wouldn’t try to seriously talk about AI risks to anyone who couldn’t first be stimulated to find within themselves such a more general serious interest. And then, if people have that general interest, they’re interested in going over the various existential risks there are, and it seems to me that sufficiently smart ones realize that the AI risks are a more difficult topic than others (at least after reading e.g. SIAI stuff; things might seem deceptively simple before one has a minimum threshold level of understanding).
So, my disagreement is that I indeed would to a degree avoid debates over probability. After a general interest in existential risks being present, I would instead of probabilities argue about the difficulty of the AI topic, and how such a lack of understanding is a very dangerous thing.
(I’m not really expressing a view on whether my approach is better or worse, though. Haven’t reflected on the matter sufficiently to form a real opinion on that, though for the time being I do continue to cling to my view instead of what Eliezer advocated.)