“the misuse of games to model real-life situations”. Taleb explains the fallacy as “basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice”
He talks about it more in the context of people treating probability like it was about “games and dice”, but it easily applies to examples like yours too. And it’s indeed something to be careful of. Maybe it should be a tag..
Nassim Taleb called this The Ludic Fallacy
He talks about it more in the context of people treating probability like it was about “games and dice”, but it easily applies to examples like yours too. And it’s indeed something to be careful of. Maybe it should be a tag..