“Bayes-language can represent statements with very small probabilities, but then, of course, they will be assigned very small probabilities. You cannot assign a probability of .1% to the Sun rising without fudging the evidence (or fudging the priors, as Eli pointed out).”
Yes you can. You can have insufficient evidence. (Your probability “assignment” will have very low probability of being correct, but the assignment itself could still easily by .1%.)
“So much for begging the question. Please do a calculation, using the theorems of Bayes (or theorems derived from Bayesian theorems), which gives an incorrect number given correct numbers as input.”
How about this as a counterchallenge—produce a correct number, any correct number at all, as it relates to the actual universe.
Incorrect numbers are generated constantly using probabilistic methods—they’re eliminated or refined as more evidence comes along.
“Using mathematics to describe the universe goes all the way back to Ptolemy. It isn’t going away anytime soon.”
If you’re going to address a single statement, you should really pay attention to context.
“Ah, here we have found one who does not comprehend the beauty of math. Alas, it is beyond my ability to impart such wisdom in a blog comment. Just drive down to your local university campus and start taking math classes- you’ll get it eventually.”
Beauty is truth, truth beauty? If you’re going to argue reality you’ll have to do better than the aesthetic value of mathematics.
“Neither GR nor QED requires a coordinate system of any sort. This is, admittedly, hard to wrap your head around, especially without going into the math. To name a simple example, it is mathematically impossible to cover the surface of a sphere (or, by topological extension, any closed surface) with a single coordinate system without creating a singularity. Needless to say, this does not mean that there must be some point on Earth where numbers go to infinity.”
Everything requires a coordinate system. For every value that HAS a value, there is an axis upon which its values are calculated. It might be a very simple boolean axis, and it might be a more complex one, representing a logarithmic function. But if a value has value, that value will be stored in some sort of mathematic concept space.
“We can predict that they won’t violate the earlier ones.”
No, we can’t.
“You simply flip the sign on the gravitational constant G. No geometric transformations required.”
Which is utterly irrelevant to the point I was making. Yes, there are simpler transformations, and less lossy ones in many cases. But the point was that any model can represent the universe, not that all are equally messy.
“Bayes-language can represent statements with very small probabilities, but then, of course, they will be assigned very small probabilities. You cannot assign a probability of .1% to the Sun rising without fudging the evidence (or fudging the priors, as Eli pointed out).”
Yes you can. You can have insufficient evidence. (Your probability “assignment” will have very low probability of being correct, but the assignment itself could still easily by .1%.)
“So much for begging the question. Please do a calculation, using the theorems of Bayes (or theorems derived from Bayesian theorems), which gives an incorrect number given correct numbers as input.”
How about this as a counterchallenge—produce a correct number, any correct number at all, as it relates to the actual universe.
Incorrect numbers are generated constantly using probabilistic methods—they’re eliminated or refined as more evidence comes along.
“Using mathematics to describe the universe goes all the way back to Ptolemy. It isn’t going away anytime soon.”
If you’re going to address a single statement, you should really pay attention to context.
“Ah, here we have found one who does not comprehend the beauty of math. Alas, it is beyond my ability to impart such wisdom in a blog comment. Just drive down to your local university campus and start taking math classes- you’ll get it eventually.”
Beauty is truth, truth beauty? If you’re going to argue reality you’ll have to do better than the aesthetic value of mathematics.
“Neither GR nor QED requires a coordinate system of any sort. This is, admittedly, hard to wrap your head around, especially without going into the math. To name a simple example, it is mathematically impossible to cover the surface of a sphere (or, by topological extension, any closed surface) with a single coordinate system without creating a singularity. Needless to say, this does not mean that there must be some point on Earth where numbers go to infinity.”
Everything requires a coordinate system. For every value that HAS a value, there is an axis upon which its values are calculated. It might be a very simple boolean axis, and it might be a more complex one, representing a logarithmic function. But if a value has value, that value will be stored in some sort of mathematic concept space.
“We can predict that they won’t violate the earlier ones.”
No, we can’t.
“You simply flip the sign on the gravitational constant G. No geometric transformations required.”
Which is utterly irrelevant to the point I was making. Yes, there are simpler transformations, and less lossy ones in many cases. But the point was that any model can represent the universe, not that all are equally messy.