I don’t have a great personal sense. I think I read somewhere, but don’t remember exactly where that it is ~20% (could have been Tetlocks book). I guess the few times I did calibration training with people is compatible with that number or an even lower number.
Interesting, thanks! Do you have any sense for what fraction of people need to increase their confidence?
I don’t have a great personal sense. I think I read somewhere, but don’t remember exactly where that it is ~20% (could have been Tetlocks book). I guess the few times I did calibration training with people is compatible with that number or an even lower number.