Yes, but the fact that the fragile worlds are much more likely to end in the future is a reason to condition your efforts on being in a robust world.
While I do buy Paul’s argument, I think it’d be very helpful if the various summaries of the interviews with him were edited to make it clear that he’s talking about value-conditioned probabilities rather than unconditional probabilities—since the claim as originally stated feels misleading. (Even if some decision theories only use the former, most people think in terms of the latter).
Is this a thing or something you just coined? “Probability” has a meaning, I’m totally against using it for things that aren’t that.
I get why the argument is valid for deciding what we should do – and you could argue that’s the only important thing. But it doesn’t make it more likely that our world is robust, which is what the post was claiming. It’s not about probability, it’s about EV.
Yes, but the fact that the fragile worlds are much more likely to end in the future is a reason to condition your efforts on being in a robust world.
While I do buy Paul’s argument, I think it’d be very helpful if the various summaries of the interviews with him were edited to make it clear that he’s talking about value-conditioned probabilities rather than unconditional probabilities—since the claim as originally stated feels misleading. (Even if some decision theories only use the former, most people think in terms of the latter).
Is this a thing or something you just coined? “Probability” has a meaning, I’m totally against using it for things that aren’t that.
I get why the argument is valid for deciding what we should do – and you could argue that’s the only important thing. But it doesn’t make it more likely that our world is robust, which is what the post was claiming. It’s not about probability, it’s about EV.