″ There can’t be too many things that reduce the expected value of the future by 10%; if there were, there would be no expected value left. ”
This is the argument from consequences fallacy. There may be many things that could destroy the future with high probability and we are simply doomed BUT the more interesting scenario and a much better working assumption is that there potentially dangerous things that are likely to destroy the future IF we don’t seek to understand them and try to correct them by concerted effort as opposed to continuing on as we do now with teh level of effort and concern we have now.
″ There can’t be too many things that reduce the expected value of the future by 10%; if there were, there would be no expected value left. ”
This is the argument from consequences fallacy. There may be many things that could destroy the future with high probability and we are simply doomed BUT the more interesting scenario and a much better working assumption is that there potentially dangerous things that are likely to destroy the future IF we don’t seek to understand them and try to correct them by concerted effort as opposed to continuing on as we do now with teh level of effort and concern we have now.
See this response.