Just wanted to register that I’m on the side of Freddie’s bet for all items below except the one on the BLS (because some categories are small enough some that losing 50% jobs on at least one category probably isn’t that unlikely).
Here’s what he says:
For me to win the wager, all of the following must be true on Feb 14, 2029:
Labor Market:
The U.S. unemployment rate is equal to or lower than 18%
Labor force participation rate, ages 25-54, is equal to or greater than 68%
No single BLS occupational category will have lost 50% or more of jobs between now and February 14th 2029
Economic Growth & Productivity:
U.S. GDP is within −30% to +35% of February 2026 levels (inflation-adjusted)
Nonfarm labor productivity growth has not exceeded 8% in any individual year or 20% for the three-year period
Prices & Markets:
The S&P 500 is within −60% to +225% of the February 2026 level
CPI inflation averaged over 3 years is between −2% and +18% annually
Corporate & Structural:
The Fortune 500 median profit margin is between 2% and 35%
The largest 5 companies don’t account for more than 65% of the total S&P 500 market cap
White Collar & Knowledge Workers:
“Professional and Business Services” employment, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 35% from February 2026
Combined employment in software developers, accountants, lawyers, consultants, and writers, as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has not declined by more than 45%
Median wage for “computer and mathematical occupations,” as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is not more than 60% lower in real terms than in February 2026
The college wage premium (median earnings of bachelor’s degree holders vs high school only) has not fallen below 30%
Inequality:
The Gini coefficient is less than 0.60
The top 1%’s income share is less than 35%
The top 0.1% wealth share is less than 30%
Median household income has not fallen by more than 40% relative to mean household income
More broadly speaking, my take is that models will continue to smash benchmarks faster than even the most optimistic expectations but we won’t see a intelligence explosion that is genuinely existentially threatening in a non-misuse way in the next ten years. Benchmarks will be increasingly disconnected from reality.
Just wanted to register that I’m on the side of Freddie’s bet for all items below except the one on the BLS (because some categories are small enough some that losing 50% jobs on at least one category probably isn’t that unlikely).
Here’s what he says:
More broadly speaking, my take is that models will continue to smash benchmarks faster than even the most optimistic expectations but we won’t see a intelligence explosion that is genuinely existentially threatening in a non-misuse way in the next ten years. Benchmarks will be increasingly disconnected from reality.