The paper argues that the number of failures in 2 (goal abandonment) is also 0. This is because it is no longer her goal once she abandons it. She fails by “the goal” but never fails by “her goal.” Cake isn’t the best case for this. The argument for this is in 3.4 and 3.5.
You are clearly assuming B, i.e. not using the current goal to evaluate the future. You even explicitly state it
Means-rationality does not prohibit setting oneself up to fail concerning a goal one currently has but will not have at the moment of failure, as this never causes an agent to fail to achieve the goal that they have at the time of failing to achieve it.
They could be using their current goal to evaluate the future, but include in the future that they won’t have that goal. This doesn’t require excluding this goal from their analysis all altogether. It’s just that they evaluate that the failure of this goal is irrelevant in a future in which they don’t have the goal.
The paper argues that the number of failures in 2 (goal abandonment) is also 0. This is because it is no longer her goal once she abandons it. She fails by “the goal” but never fails by “her goal.” Cake isn’t the best case for this. The argument for this is in 3.4 and 3.5.
You are clearly assuming B, i.e. not using the current goal to evaluate the future. You even explicitly state it
They could be using their current goal to evaluate the future, but include in the future that they won’t have that goal. This doesn’t require excluding this goal from their analysis all altogether. It’s just that they evaluate that the failure of this goal is irrelevant in a future in which they don’t have the goal.
Maybe this is still B, in which case I might have interpreted it more strictly than you intended.