My p(doom) is around 10% probably in part because I imagine a pretty slow takeoff. I don’t think 60% is necessarily unreasonable, nor 1% nor 99%. It’s hard to estimate from essentially zero actual information.
My p(doom) is around 10% probably in part because I imagine a pretty slow takeoff. I don’t think 60% is necessarily unreasonable, nor 1% nor 99%. It’s hard to estimate from essentially zero actual information.