Even in markets where a positive resolution doesn’t literally result in the death of most people alive, this can be a concern.
I’ve been tempted in the past to place money on nuclear war markets, but the fact that most prediction markets are pegged to USD makes me hesitant.
As an Australian, if a nuclear war breaks out, I would predict a much higher likelihood for my local government to keep meaningfully functioning than for nearly any other government in the world. Therefore, the value of Yes on a nuclear war market for me is meaningfully higher than that of most of the rest of the userbase.
But since the market resolution is pegged to USD, I can’t meaningfully express that. If I could get some financial product that converted USD expressed smart contracts to AUD expressed ones (maybe backed by FX futures?) that would help, but for obvious reasons nobody is supplying these.
Even in markets where a positive resolution doesn’t literally result in the death of most people alive, this can be a concern.
I’ve been tempted in the past to place money on nuclear war markets, but the fact that most prediction markets are pegged to USD makes me hesitant.
As an Australian, if a nuclear war breaks out, I would predict a much higher likelihood for my local government to keep meaningfully functioning than for nearly any other government in the world. Therefore, the value of Yes on a nuclear war market for me is meaningfully higher than that of most of the rest of the userbase.
But since the market resolution is pegged to USD, I can’t meaningfully express that. If I could get some financial product that converted USD expressed smart contracts to AUD expressed ones (maybe backed by FX futures?) that would help, but for obvious reasons nobody is supplying these.