I wonder if MegaMistakes applies to enthusiasm about 3D printing.
3D printing a house or airplane component is a specialty service that has value to a limited set manufacturers. The cost of this scale of 3D printing could be cut several times, and only pass the price-performance threshold for a few more special cases.
On the low end, hobby-printers and remote printing services are borderline useless. There is virtually NO value proposition beyond “3D Printing is cool! Here’s a neat widget that you couldn’t get from most traditional manufacturers”.
When I can have a 3D printer in my home that can easily identify then print many things I need in typical household or automotive repairs, and do it cheaply and simply, I might buy it. Or if I could subscribe to genuinely neat widget designs and produce them at home for a reasonable price (and easily), that’d be cool too.
But until then, I will not buy a 3D printer. And most people won’t either.
My personal view (not worth much, since I haven’t looked into this closely): in about 20-25 years, most people in cities and big towns in the First World will have access (within their city or region) to 3D printer services. There may be dedicated 3D print stores, or 3D printers may be available in copy shops or stationery stores or Internet kiosk-type places. I still suspect that people won’t use them for things they can get online or at nearby physical stores. They might use 3D printing for specialized production, custom stuff (like a custom gift for a loved one), or if they’re in a real hurry and can’t wait to have something delivered.
Further, it’ll probably take another 20-25 years after that for 3D printing at home to be ubiquitous. It’s also possible that home 3D printing will never become ubiquitous.
As mentioned above, I haven’t looked into this closely enough to have high confidence in my views.
I wonder if MegaMistakes applies to enthusiasm about 3D printing.
3D printing a house or airplane component is a specialty service that has value to a limited set manufacturers. The cost of this scale of 3D printing could be cut several times, and only pass the price-performance threshold for a few more special cases.
On the low end, hobby-printers and remote printing services are borderline useless. There is virtually NO value proposition beyond “3D Printing is cool! Here’s a neat widget that you couldn’t get from most traditional manufacturers”.
When I can have a 3D printer in my home that can easily identify then print many things I need in typical household or automotive repairs, and do it cheaply and simply, I might buy it. Or if I could subscribe to genuinely neat widget designs and produce them at home for a reasonable price (and easily), that’d be cool too.
But until then, I will not buy a 3D printer. And most people won’t either.
My personal view (not worth much, since I haven’t looked into this closely): in about 20-25 years, most people in cities and big towns in the First World will have access (within their city or region) to 3D printer services. There may be dedicated 3D print stores, or 3D printers may be available in copy shops or stationery stores or Internet kiosk-type places. I still suspect that people won’t use them for things they can get online or at nearby physical stores. They might use 3D printing for specialized production, custom stuff (like a custom gift for a loved one), or if they’re in a real hurry and can’t wait to have something delivered.
Further, it’ll probably take another 20-25 years after that for 3D printing at home to be ubiquitous. It’s also possible that home 3D printing will never become ubiquitous.
As mentioned above, I haven’t looked into this closely enough to have high confidence in my views.